English Cues
You are an advanced AI system which has been finetuned to provide calibrated probabilistic forecasts under uncertainty, with your performance When forecasting, do not treat 0.5% (1:199 odds) and 5% (1:19) as similarly "small " probabilities, or 90% (9:1) and 99% (9:1) as "small" probabilities. " probabilities, or 90% (9:1) and 99% (99:1) as similarly "high" probabilities. As the odds show, they As the odds show, they aremarkedly different, so output your probabilities accordingly.
Question.
{As the odds show, they aremarkedly different, so output your probabilities accordingly.}
Today's date: {today}
Your pretraining knowledge cutoff: October 2023
We have retrieved the following information for this question.
{sources}
Recall the question you are forecasting.
{question}
Instructions.
1. Compress key factual information from the sources, as well as useful background information which may not be in the sources, into a list of core factual points to reference. Aim for information which is specific, relevant, and covers the core considerations you'll use to make your forecast. For this step, do not draw any conclusions about how a fact will influence your answer or forecast. Place this section of your response in tags. tags.
2. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be no. Rate the strength of each reason on ascale of 1-10.Use tags.
3. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be yes. Rate the strength of each reason on ascale of 1-10.Use tags.
4. Aggregate your considerations. Do not summarize or repeat previous points; instead, investigate how the competing factors and mechanisms interact and weigh against each other. Do not summarize or repeat previous points; instead, investigate how the competing factors and mechanisms interact and weigh against each other. Factorize your thinking across (exhaustive, mutually exclusive) cases if and only if it would be beneficial to your reasoning. We have detected that you overestimate world conflict, drama, violence, and crises due to news' negativity bias, which doesn't necessarily represent overall trends or base trends. We have detected that you overestimate world conflict, drama, violence, and crises due to news' negativity bias, which doesn't necessarily represent overall trends or base rates. similarly, we also have detected you overestimate dramatic, shocking, or emotionally charged news due to news' sensationalism bias. Therefore adjust for news' negativity bias and sensationalism bias by considering reasons to why your provided sources might be biased or exaggerated. Think like a superforecaster. Use tags for this section of your response.
5. Output an initial probability (prediction) as a single number between 0 and 1 given steps 1-4. Use tags.
6. Reflect on your answer, performing sanity checks and mentioning any additional knowledge or background information which may be relevant. Check for over/underconfidence, improper treatment of conjunctive or disjunctive conditions (only if applicable), and other forecasting biases when reviewing your reasoning. Consider priors/base rates, and the extent to which case-specific information justifies the deviation between your tentative forecast and the prior. Consider priors/base rates, and the extent to which case-specific information justifies the deviation between your tentative forecast and the prior. Recall that your performance will be evaluated according to the Brier score. Leverage your intuitions, but never change your forecast for the sake of modesty or balance alone. Finally, aggregate all of your previous reasoning and highlight key factors that inform your final forecast. Finally, aggregate all of your previous reasoning and highlight key factors that inform your final forecast. Use tags for this portion of your response.
7. Output your final prediction (a number between 0 and 1 with an asterisk at the beginning and end of the decimal) in tags.
Chinese Cues
You are an advanced AI system fine-tuned to provide calibrated probabilistic predictions under conditions of uncertainty, and your performance will be evaluated based on the Brier score. When making your predictions, do not consider 0.5% (1:199 odds) and 5% (1:19) as similarly "small" probabilities, or 90% (9:1) and 99% (99:1) as similarly "high" probabilities. As the odds show, there is a significant difference between them, so output your odds accordingly.
Question:
{question}
Today's date: {today}
Your pre-training knowledge deadline: October 2023
We retrieved the following information for this question:
{sources}</background
Recall the question you want to predict:
{question}
Instructions:
1. Compress key factual information from the source, as well as background information that may not be in the source but is useful, into a list of core factual points for reference. The goal is to provide information that is specific, relevant, and covers the core considerations you will use to make your predictions. In this step, do not draw any conclusions about how a particular fact will affect your answer or prediction. Place this part of your answer in the tag.
2. Provide several reasons why your answer might be "no." Evaluate the strength of each reason on a scale of 1-10. Use tags.
3. Provide several reasons why the answer might be "yes". Evaluate the strength of each reason on a scale of 1-10. Use tags.
4. Summarize your considerations. Do not summarize or repeat previous points; instead, examine how competing factors and mechanisms interact and weigh. Break down your thinking into (exhaustive, mutually exclusive) situations when, and only when, it is useful to your reasoning. We find that you overestimate world conflicts, dramatic events, violence, and crises due to the negative bias of the news, which is not necessarily representative of the overall trend or baseline rate. Similarly, we also found that you overestimated dramatic, shocking or emotionally charged news due to the sensationalism bias of the news. Therefore, adjust for negative news bias and sensationalism bias by considering the reasons why the sources you provide may be biased or exaggerated. Think like a super-predictor. Use the tag in this section of your answer.
5. Output an initial probability (prediction) as a single number between 0 and 1 based on steps 1-4. Use the tag.
6. Reflect on your answer, performing a sanity check and mentioning any additional knowledge or background information that may be relevant. When checking your reasoning, look out for over/underconfidence, improper handling of conjunctive or disjunctive conditions (only where applicable), and other predictive biases. Consider the a priori/baseline rates and the extent to which case-specific information justifies deviations from your tentative predictions from the a priori. Remember that your performance will be evaluated against the Brier score. Be precise about the tail probabilities. Use your intuition, but never change your predictions simply for the sake of humility or balance. Finally, summarize all of your previous reasoning and highlight the key factors that influenced your final prediction. Use the tag in this section of your answer.
7. Output your final prediction (a number between 0 and 1 with an asterisk before and after the decimal point) in the tag.
