The current pace of development and disruptive forces in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) are provoking profound industry reflection and unease. Here are a few observations and predictions about the AI-driven changes that are occurring and will soon be evident in the coming years.
The Rise of Next Generation Software and Business Models
in order to ChatGPT 4o
s image generation capabilities, for example, have an impact comparable to that of the ChatGPT
The first release heralds a new era. This is likely to spawn hundreds of software companies in verticals with annual revenues in the million to $100 million range. These companies will focus on using AI to solve industry-specific pain points.
We are in the "MP3 Napster era" of content creation. Millions of creators don't realize that their entire catalog of past work is being used by AI as training data to turn them into future competitors. It's a silent weaponization process.
Over the next three years, almost all calendars, inboxes, and customer relationship management (CRM) systems will be completely reimagined, not just "AI-enhanced. This means that a new way of thinking based on AI will dominate the design of these foundational tools.
AI is not only creating "digital employees" but also "digital employers". The emergence of the first AI systems capable of effectively managing human employees will lead to a restructuring of the labor market that will be even more dramatic than the Industrial Revolution.
The traditional model of service-based business is being disrupted. Service businesses that were difficult to scale in the past are being transformed into productized businesses with service margins through AI. AI has taken on about 80% of work, making "productized services" the birthplace of new unicorns. The future opportunity lies in vertical AI applications that require a true understanding of the industry context rather than simply adding industry jargon to the prompts.
Dramatic changes in the labor market and demand for skills
The irony is that if your job is to interview the people who train the AI systems that will eventually replace the people who do the interviewing, then you are in a peculiarly recursive chain of "professional extinction".
The customer support space will see massive automation. It is expected that within the next 36 months, not only Tier 1 work orders, but also complex, multi-step problem solving processes that used to be handled by senior support staff, will be largely done by AI.
A whole new career category is being born: the AI Workflow Designer (AI). Workflow (Designers). Those who can map, design, and optimize human workflows into AI-enhanced workflows will be the highest paid consultants over the next decade. One of the smartest hiring decisions this year may be the creation of a Head of AI Ops position responsible for building workflows, integrating tools, and delivering results.
The New Landscape of Content Creation, Creative Industries and Brands
The content space is undergoing a transformation similar to Napster's impact on the music industry, and the Sketching Economy is emerging as individuals and small teams can quickly turn rough sketches into professional-grade designs with the widespread use of AI. This makes taste and Ideation a truly scarce resource.
At the same time, AI-generated content could also lead to a "monoculture" of ideas. When everyone relies on the same models, outputs converge and original human thought becomes extremely valuable. Remaining unique and "weird" may be the new selling point.
Video game studios are likely to polarize into two groups: "content farms" that use AI agents to generate massive amounts of content, and boutique studios that focus on core mechanics. The middle ground will gradually disappear. The enterprise photography industry is essentially over. There's no longer a reason to spend thousands of dollars on traditional commercial photography when companies can subscribe to a service that generates an unlimited number of images that fit perfectly with their brand tone.
In the future, much of what we call "marketing" will be done by AI. The role of humans will shift upstream to focus more on storytelling, vibes and brand energy. "The potential for Vibe Marketing is huge, just as Vibe Coding is seen as a $100 billion opportunity.
Reshaping Product Development, Strategy and Market Competition
Building communities is harder than building products, although many people pretend otherwise. The root cause of most startup failures is often Nobody cares.
AI is making what once seemed like an "un-acquireable" business suddenly attractive. When operations can be highly automated through AI, the problem of over-reliance on individual founders is solved. This could lead to an acquisition spree for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) that could be even larger than the tech bubble of 2021. When AI reduces operating costs by 60%, every small business has the potential to become a cash flow engine.
People are generally tired of Monthly Subscriptions. The Outcome-based pricing model, while still in its early days, will give many companies a significant competitive advantage that may be difficult for large SaaS companies to compete with.
The Consumer Mobile space is in full recovery. We've gone from desktop-first to mobile-first and are now entering the era of AI-first mobile apps. The next wave of apps that generate over $100 million in annual revenue will be mobile-first products with deep AI integration from day one.
The AI Middleman (AI Middleware) boom is just beginning. Companies that sit between the underlying big models and industry-specific applications will capture most of the value, while markets at either end of the spectrum may be at risk of commoditization (Commoditization).
AI is creating a winner-take-most market overnight. The window to establish leadership in a given vertical can be 6 to 12 months, and once it closes, it can be a decade.
A very smart strategy is to rebuild legacy products using AI as your Unfair Advantage, hiding the complexity of AI behind familiar interfaces. Basically, look for applications that don't have AI yet, but have been proven in the marketplace, and transform them to be AI-first (provided the AI delivers significant value to the end user). In creator-led marketing, highlight what AI brings to the table (Use AI features) rather than selling AI itself (Don't sell AI). That's what's working right now.
Distribution is the only moat left. Your product, technology, and team may be copied, but your direct connection to your customers cannot be easily duplicated.AI-driven distribution will trump AI-driven products. A mid-level product with top-tier market reach can often beat a great product that lacks focus.
The Conversion rate optimization product debate is becoming obsolete. Why argue over two designs when AI-driven focus groups can test 200 button colors or layout variants overnight?
AI and Society: Ethics, Cognition and Future Prospects
Backlash from AI will come not only from the workers being replaced, but also from everyone who realizes that their entire digital identity is being turned into training data without their consent. The harsh reality is that almost no one actually reads the Terms of Service.
AI is disintegrating. Google
The Ecosystem. Every vertical search engine, directory, and comparison tool could be a billion-dollar opportunity in disguise.
One possibility to ponder about the emergence of generalized artificial intelligence (AGI) is whether it will emerge from networks of interconnected AI agents. These networks may develop complex Emergent Properties that no one has designed. We may be inadvertently building the neural connections of AGI.
While Generative AI (GenAI) may seem like a trillion-dollar track, much of the "hidden wealth" will be amassed in Predictive AI. Knowing what's going to happen is more valuable than generating new content.
The so-called "AI Bubble" is actually a response to the inability of those who can't differentiate between true innovation and simple encapsulation. OpenAI
A "consumption tax" levied by API's venture capitalists.
Interactive interfaces of the future will evolve into beings with "personalities". Vibe and Tone will drive user trust, loyalty and retention as each tool speaks to a person. That's why investing in design, taste and branding is especially important in the age of AI, which may even "kill" the traditional homepage. Interfaces will be replaced by dynamic entry points that change based on who the user is, what they want, and when they visit.
People don't pay for "AI" per se, they pay for the ability to solve a $10,000/hour problem in three clicks. Sell Outcomes and hide the AI technology behind it.
Every small business will have a Ghost Team: automated bookkeepers, sales agents, marketers - all of which could be run by a single founder plus a few AI bots.
The education system may not be "disrupted" by AI, but rather "disintermediated". Smart teens may skip the traditional education path and instead build their own audiences, experiment, and learn at a faster pace. Kids say they want to be creators, but creators are becoming entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurship may become the most popular career.
Expect 80%'s so-called "AI startups" to look like spam within 18 months. The rest will be part of the infrastructure.
The first billion-dollar AGI startup may seem like a toy at first. All world-changing interfaces do.
We are at a historic moment when the rules of business are being completely rewritten. For those who are actively exploring these new tools and building audiences and communities, they have an unrivaled head start. How long this window will last is unknown, but seizing the moment is critical.